Jonathan Gichuru (ELP 2022) | Environmental Specialist, Alliance Bioversity and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Kenya
Climate action and affordable clean energy form part of the sustainable development goals that drive vehicle manufacturing companies to develop technologies that promote environmental protection and energy conservation. The manufacture of electric vehicles (EV) has considerably accelerated with more environmental awareness. EV companies are experiencing more sales than previous years. Many manufacturing heavy hitters such as Volkswagen (VW), BMW, Porsche and Tesla are pushing the envelope with exciting new models available in the market currently and looking to advance in future.
Top-selling electric vehicles are manufactured to produce top-tier performance, display elegant designs, and incorporate the latest technologies that make driving easier and more fun. In terms of performance, electric vehicles have incredible acceleration and handling that match and in some instances surpass regular gasoline powered cars. An example is the higher range of the Tesla Model S P100D which goes from 0-62 mph in less than 2.5 secs and the lower range 75D which has the same performance in 4.2 secs, which is still incredible.
The manufacturers responsible for the production of top-selling electric vehicles have managed to integrate technologies of the automobile into the production of high-performance vehicles and this sets them apart from other players in the industry. Technologies such as adaptive cruise control and crash avoidance systems including auto-braking and lane keep assist have been incorporated in the latest electric models to elevate the driving experience for electric vehicle enthusiasts. Another example of how manufacturers go the extra mile is how Tesla has established over 10,000 stations worldwide. This greatly improves access to high-speed chargers (superchargers) that top-up in minutes. Also, most of the leading industry companies have understood the importance of the integration of social strength and coordination by the government, research institutions, and other relevant stakeholders.
A factor that I would highly consider when deciding on electric versus gas cars is the amount of emissions. Fully electric vehicles do not use an exhaust system and therefore no fumes are released into the atmosphere. This can help achieve cleaner air and less emission of greenhouse gasses. I would prefer to own an electric vehicle because it is cheaper to run and cheaper to maintain. There is no use of gas so it saves you money and only monthly inspections are required instead of the costly regular servicing for maintenance. I would also go for an electric car because of how it is quiet while driving. The VW e-golf has a feature (artificial engine sound) that adds engine noise to alert passengers of an oncoming vehicle.
A technology that is set to revolutionize and transform the electric vehicle in terms of performance is the introduction of solid-state batteries. Traditionally, electric vehicles use lithium-ion rechargeable batteries such as the Tesla 18650 cell (giant battery pack) used in the Model S with a 350-mile range. One of the benefits that will come along with this great technology is greater energy density. This provides an increase equivalent to two or more times the current range of competitor’s batteries. Another benefit will be that of fast charging. The normal 80% charge in 15 minutes will be phased out. Solid-state batteries will also have a longer life and better thermal stability than Li-ion batteries which are now known as fire hazards.
Governments, in coordination with relevant key stakeholders, are responsible for setting up infrastructures that will stimulate the adoption of EVs. Several countries have set up initiatives. For example, in the UK, there are plug-in vehicle subsidies. Japan and China have also initiated green vehicle purchasing promotion measures. Other infrastructure that would be beneficial include special highway lanes such as HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lanes used in some major highways to bypass traffic. HOV lanes would encourage more people to make the switch from gas cars to electric cars.
The government, other relevant institutional support, and also technological advancements have made the future for EVs very bright. Currently, up to zero emission targets by 2050. France and the UK aim to ban the sale of combustion vehicles by 2040. According to BloombergNEF electric vehicle outlook, 2020, EVs global passenger vehicle sales will reach 10% by 2025. That figure will rise by 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040. Partnerships are also producing groundbreaking technologies. The Volkswagen partnership with QuantumScape will lead to the production of solid-state batteries that will be used in VW EVs in 2024. General Motors (GM) plans to produce a solid-state million-mile life battery that will be affordable and will reduce concerns about the dozens of electric vehicle batteries that will require recycling. Samsung also has a battery design that will allow it to be discharged and recharged up to 1000 times meaning that one battery pack can be assigned to more than one car in its lifetime. This will have interesting effects on the overall economics of the future electric cars.
Electromobility in Developing Economies
Electromobility in many low- and middle-income countries is still in the nascent stages of development. Electromobility in developing nations offers a variety of opportunities to transform the existing carbon-intensive transport patterns that contribute negatively to the environment through air pollution and traffic congestion. Electromobility also supports economic and energy efficiency.
Developing countries such as South Africa, Kenya, Rwanda, Egypt, Vietnam, and Malaysia have made strides by creating a favorable environment that supports EV uptake and production by developing policies, appropriate regulatory measures and investment-ready frameworks. Some of the interventions and strategies that have been utilized include: national electric mobility strategies; fiscal incentives such as tax benefits and public-private partnerships; research and development support; and pilot projects tailored for transport modes applicable to their situation, i.e. two/three-wheelers, shared mobility, taxis and buses.
An example of how developing economies have incorporated electromobility innovations is through the Global E-Mobility Programme co-funded by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF). The programme plays a vital role in accelerating the shift to electromobility in low- and middle-income countries and to meet the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. GEF collaborates with national governments, Asian Development Bank, Centro de Mario Molina, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Energy Agency and United Nations Environment Programme under one global project. The scope of the work covers more than 50 countries and the involved organizations provide financial support for technical assistance and training among many others.
Kenya’s Context
Kenya aims to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 32% by the year 2030 compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. The Kenyan transport sector accounts for about 12% of Kenya’s total GHG emissions. This percentage is equivalent to 11.25 Million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide (MtCO2e) as at 2015. The transport sector aims to reduce 3.46 MtCO2e against the Business as Usual (BAU) by adopting a sustainable and low carbon mobility pathway.
To support the 3.46 MtCO2e target, the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS) adopted the Electric Vehicle Standards which proposes a reduction in excise duty for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) (carrying more than ten people) from 20% to 10% along with a target of 5% of imported vehicles to be electric by 2025. This is also proposed in the Finance Bill of 2019. Therefore, electric mobility is a key area of action to contribute to Kenya’s NDC and as a result has been highlighted as a key action in the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) 2018-2022.
Kenya as a new market entrant is gradually introducing EVs into the transport sector especially within Nairobi with charging stations at different stations such as Two Rivers Mall, Thika Road Mall and the Hub Karen. In Kenya, EVs total around 350 in a vehicle stock of 2.2 million. In January 2022, ROAM, a Swedish-Kenyan company formerly called Opibu, introduced its first African designed and manufactured electric bus in Kenya. Other examples of electric mobility investments in Kenya include; Nopea Ride established in August 2018 as the first fully electric ride sharing app in Kenya; Solar E-Cycle developing 3- and 4-wheel vehicles, electric bicycles, and scooters; and Drive Electric which offers a wide range of electric vehicle services such as vehicle leasing and fleet analysis, charging station installation and e-mobility consultancy among many others.
The State Department of Transport (SDoT) is working on advancing e-mobility in Kenya with support from GIZ and other development partners. Under this partnership, the Advancing Transport Climate Strategies Project (TraCS) has engaged a number of stakeholders from the public and private sectors to contribute to the e-mobility discussions. One of the main objectives of the consultations is to identify existing barriers that are slowing down the uptake of electric mobility in Kenya. Some of the challenges that limit the uptake of electric vehicles in Kenya include insufficient government policies, regulations and frameworks that promote the use of EVs, lack of fiscal incentives for EVs, limited charging infrastructure and high costs incurred during purchase and importation.
However, there are opportunities that can be favorable to our context. For example, Kenya currently generates over 2700MW, out of which over 80% is renewable, against the demand at 1860MW13. The excess 800MW could be utilized to power an electric transport fleet. The demand goes even lower to 1000MW during off-peak hours between 10pm and 6am; this is the ideal time for the slow charging at home. The electricity access rate in the country also stands at 73.4% as of the end of April 2018, but it is also possible through decentralized power inputs such as solar panels to power electric mobility in areas not connected to the national grid.
Endorsement of private and development sector support by the government is also a great advancement opportunity for example The government is involved in an e-mobility pilot with UN Environment where they will engage the City of Kisumu and Kenya Power & Lighting Company Limited through deployment of a total of 50 electric motorcycles on a pilot basis.
Implementation of NDCs at the African COP 27
Kenya submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 28th December 2020. The updated NDC commits to lower GHG emissions by 32% by 2030 relative to the business as usual scenario as compared to the first NDC target of 30% GHG emission reduction. Another commitment set by the updated NDC is to mobilize domestic resources to meet 13% of the estimated USD 62 billion implementation costs.
The Ministry of Environment and Forestry through the Climate Change Coordination Unit led the process of updating the NDC with support from the GIZ NDC Assist project. The stakeholder consultations were centered around outlining the progress achieved and capturing the challenges associated with sector-specific actions outlined in the key documents that support the NDC implementation, such as the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP).
COP 26 was accomplished and it remains commitment based. The upcoming COP27 in Egypt termed as the African COP is expected to be the implementation COP. Financing of adaptation efforts as a way of dealing with the impact of climate change, will be among the center stage discussions and more corporate commitments at the global and the local level is expected. Kenya requires Sh600 billion on an annual basis for the next eight years to keep to its commitments under the Paris agreement. Majority of that funding (80 percent) is required for adaptation measures and the remaining 20 percent will be utilized for mitigation purposes. A lot of voices including the youth are expected to be raised and time to implement the commitments made by actors is long overdue.