Within this context, Africa is being urged to wholeheartedly embrace a green, low-carbon development trajectory – more so now in its post-COVID recovery efforts to “build back better”. The fundamental notion is that this is a ‘win-win’ situation whereby growth need not be decoupled from a clean environment as the continent harnesses its bountiful renewable energy resources, necessitating it to forgo any further exploitation of its fossil fuel resources.  Further, Africa is largely unlocked-into carbon-intensive production processes, thus it would make the transition more palatable by saving it from retrofitting woes that more advanced economies are contending with.

Yet, while Africa’s compliance is vital to global climate ambition, who bears the social and economic costs is of global significance. The ability to determine the speed, scale and timing of the transition will matter, as will the relevant knowledge and skills to enable significant transition decisions to be taken. There has been criticism that low-carbon development emphasizes the ‘green’ over the ‘justice’ elements, presenting a serious problem, as an unjust transition is, well, un-just, thereby inherently unsustainable. Hence, what should a just transition look like for Africa? How does Africa locate itself in this global dynamic? Who directs the orientation of the transition and who defines the justice that anchors the transition? Has Africa positioned itself to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the transition?

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Africa faces a profound developmental dilemma – as the continent most vulnerable to climate change, it will pay to be most ambitious in its climate change goals. Yet, concomitantly, it contributes the least to climate change on account of its low levels of industrialization and energy consumption (3), hence is in greatest need of rapid investment in infrastructure and industrialization. If this were to be based on business as usual approaches, Africa would contribute towards overshooting the 1.5°C goal, thus worsening its own vulnerability to climate impacts. Indeed, there is the very real danger of stranded assets, as the rest of the world divests from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources. The pressure continues to mount evidenced by increasing difficulties in securing investment as well as trading in carbon-related goods and services.(4)

How then should Africa embark on its development trajectory? Should it embrace its unexploited fossil fuels, negotiate for a larger share of the world’s remaining carbon budget or aggressively pursue carbon-neutral development pathways?  This is the just transition question Africa needs to answer. There are complex socio-economic, technological and policy challenges to navigate compounded by a very uncertain international financing framework. Notably, the rapid mitigation undertones of the net-zero emissions by 2050 paradigm remain concerning, notwithstanding the urgent necessity to save planet Earth. 

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The just transition subject has, by and large, not been very prominent in the African policy discourse. Transitioning away from fossil fuel based energy systems will be disruptive, no doubt.  A just transition is possible, but it is dependent on context as each country’s transition pathway will (by necessity) be dissimilar. Essentially, there are countries who are more capable of defining what the transition is going to be and how it will transpire. Thus, the key challenge for Africa is to determine the trajectory of the transition on which it will embark upon, which will most likely entail contesting those dominant narratives that do not necessarily speak to its local realities and contexts. Crucially, there is an urgent need for an ‘African agency’ in this realm as the continent can ill-afford to be on the periphery of the debate. It needs to be bold, assertive and more proactive in developing a narrative which is distinctly African. Otherwise, the continent will find it exceedingly difficult to survive and risks being swept up as the rest of the world moves ahead with the energy transition. 

Indeed, there are formidable challenges in making the transition just. The prevailing narrative entails an expectation of all countries to set 2050 net-zero emission targets regardless of their historical or current contribution to the climate change phenomenon. Yet, this is a glaring dilution of the Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR) principle enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Crucially, the ability to attain net-zero is a function of variables including technological capability, financial capability and even governance capability. There ought to be a more concerted effort by the international community to avoid blanket standards and policies that fail to appreciate the nuances, diverse realities, and discrepancies in developing nations’ needs as well as viable solutions and financing costs, premised on respective capabilities to accommodate various pathways to net-zero. Accordingly, historical responsibility, as well as financial and technological capabilities, would dictate that advanced economies put their own environmental house in order and do the ‘heavy-lifting.’ We need a wider understanding of justice in attaining a more inclusive, equitable, and just transition. 

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Nevertheless, there are transitional opportunities Africa can capitalize on and must seize as there is no turning back. One cannot let the ‘perfect become the enemy of good’ in the move to a carbon-neutral future: Africa cannot continue to lament on structural challenges or inequity issues and risk being left behind. Notably, optimizing the post-COVID recovery by harnessing transformative green growth trajectories and leveraging recent breakthroughs that have made renewable energy more affordable supports job creation and economic multipliers, poverty eradication efforts, and social justice while concomitantly reversing environmental degradation and building climate resilience. Studies indicate global net employment gains of 0.5 – 2%, or 15–60 million additional jobs. In the African context, a recent study conducted in South Africa by UNECA revealed that a green recovery would deliver up to 250 % more jobs in the short-term and as much as 420% greater economic value in the long term compared with traditional fossil fuel-based alternatives (5). 

But this is no easy feat and it will not transpire by default. It requires strategic foresight and dedication, as well as a consistently coherent and holistic effort that is policy-based, incentive-based, and investment-based. Africa will urgently need to craft a solidly viable plan as pathways for carbon-neutral development will necessitate the mobilization of finance and technology on an unparalleled magnitude.  Moreover, there will be a need for exceptional innovation in unlocking available resources as well as the creation of new mechanisms. A tall-order indeed, but one worth seeing through, given the gravity of the situation. 

Ultimately, Africa needs to define and chart its own course. Above all, justice needs to be preserved, internalized and afforded the level of prominence it requires as the world looks to enhance climate ambition and hasten the transition. An inequitable and unjust transition is morally as well as economically indefensible. The exit from fossil fuels must be managed cautiously, perhaps even allow the development of natural gas as a bridging fuel. Africa must be unequivocal in its request for more time and policy space that embeds equity, sustainability, and inclusivity at its very core. If Africa fails to drive itself, it risks being driven to the transition.

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